Is the Recession Ending?

One swallow doesn’t make it spring, but we got some very good economic news today:

The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in June for a third consecutive month, reinforcing signs the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.7 percent, more than forecast, after a revised 1.3 percent gain in May, the New York- based research group said today. It is the first time the index has climbed for three months in a row since 2004.

Smaller job losses, rising stock prices and stabilization in homebuilding and manufacturing are evidence that government efforts to stem the financial crisis and lower borrowing costs may pay off. A jobless rate that is forecast to reach 10 percent and falling home values are a reminder that any expansion will be muted as consumers rein in spending and boost savings.

This is good news!

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