This week will probably be quieter than the previous few weeks since earnings season is almost over. The big news this week will be the reports on wholesale and consumer inflation. If the news shows that inflation is creeping up, this could mean big trouble for the bond market.
On Tuesday, the trade report for March will be released. The trade deficit probably expanded during March.
On Thursday, an even better look at the consumer will come when Wal-Mart (WMT) reports its first-quarter results. They simply don’t get much bigger than WMT. The government will also report on wholesale inflation during April.
On Friday, the report on consumer inflation will be released. The bond market will be on edge until these results come out. As I’ve said, I’m expecting inflation to come back in a big way, but it may take some time to see it reach the consumer level.